The Real Threat To Online Poker Players

There’s been a lot of buzz in the online poker ecosystem about the recent declarations of PokerOK CEO Ivan Bryksin, in a series of posts and online messages that have since been labeled as “The War on Stables”. Here is a print from the official (translated) Telegram post from PokerOK where all of this began:

Safe to say Ivan is not a big fan of poker stables.

But why should you care about this? It’s unlikely you’re a part of a stable yourself. Whether poker stables are banned or not from GG Poker is not necessarily relevant to you.

The thing is that Mr. Bryksin made the discussions relevant to any online poker player when he started speaking more about his vision for the future of poker. Discussions got really heated in a russian poker forum, and Ivan spoke very frankly about what Poker might become in the near future. As a CEO for a relevant skin in the most popular poker platform in the world, his words carry a significant weight. And boy, what he said does not sound very good.

Basically Mr. Bryksin just flat out stated that the future of poker is to turn into a casino game.

Shit. That’s serious.

The first statement from Ivan regarding this topic can be seen below:

The first bit is a reply to user Danxooo, who asked what Ivan meant when referring to the “arrival of AI”. Ivan basically stated that AI powered systems are coming fast and they will destroy any game where an edge is possible. Currently, AI detection systems are being used to stop the cheating from other AI systems used to cheat, but once the AI is sophisticated enough (‘advanced AI’ as he calls it), perhaps this won’t be possible.

Therefore, in Ivan’s mind, the only way for poker to grow is to become a casino game. If “no one plays with an ideal strategy”, then poker will become much more fun and this will drive recreational players to the game.

He even gets more specific, comparing RTP (Return to Player, percentage of deposits returned to the player) for slots with poker. Currently, Poker offers 60% RTP at best to the recreationals, while slots offer 96%. In Ivan’s opinion, that’s why 20% of GG New customers go to casino instead of poker (data he exposed in a different post). “If everything is done correctly”, however, Poker will reach the 96% RTP and it will play like a casino game, but against people.

To make everyone feel a bit better, he makes sure to state that this will be stated very clearly in the rules! Everyone will know that they are playing a casino game where they can expect to lose in the long run.

Yeah. I told you it didn’t look good. But it can get worse.

Confronted by an user called “allianze”, Mr. Ivan did not hesitate or back down. In fact, he double down on it:

Not only he thinks this is the future for poker in his platform – “This is the future of poker in general“.

As terrible as this may sound for online poker players, it’s not like they didn’t warn us. Several “warning” messages have been given by the network throughout the years.

GG Poker has made it very clear that they want edges decreased in their platform, since day 1.

Scandalous bans of winning players; Insane rake that makes almost impossible for regs to have an winrate pre-rakeback; shady rakeback system that rewards losing players more and winning players less, without being open about it; HUDs not allowed in the site; multi-talbing software not allowed except tiling features; very strict “bumhunting” rules; the list goes on.

That being said, no one expected such blatant statements from an executive and representative of the platform. It took everyone off guard.

SO…IS GG POKER EVIL?

Before we talk about the repercussions of these statements from Ivan and what this all means to us poker players, something needs to be said about GG Poker.

The truth is that they are good at what they do. They successfully took over a market once dominated by a brand that no one expected to lose its position. They brought new records to online poker traffic and prizes, got dozens of thousands of new people to play poker, and generated a shit ton of revenue in the process. They set a new benchmark for excellent poker software in the niche, innovated in reward programs and promotions, attracted players from the so neglected Asian market. They did a lot of things right, and that’s why they are currently the market leader for online poker.

The fight against regulars is a (partially) logical one for a for-profit poker site operator. Regulars can be, in the eyes of a poker platform, an undesired partner. To understand this, we need to talk a little bit about the economics of poker.

What sustains the whole online poker economy are the recreational players’ deposits. They deposit money into the poker site because they want to play poker and have fun.

Now, the way the poker site makes money is by charging rake on the games these recreational players engage in, using the money from their deposits. Part of this money is returned to them through the many promotions and reward systems, to incentivize them to play more and deposit more. And part of it becomes revenue to the site operator.

What makes poker sites dislike regulars a bit is that they take money out of the ecosystem. Regulars are the reason why RTP for recreationals is 60%. Recreationals lose money very fast to regulars, and regulars withdraw this money from the ecosystem. Regulars make recreationals lose faster than they would without them, which is objectively a worse playing experience than losing slower, and at the same time they also reduce the revenue from the poker site operator by taking a cut of the recreational’s deposits as form of withdraws.

By reducing the edges in the game and eliminating winning players, the poker site operator can (supposedly) provide a better experience for their profitable customers, the recreationals, AND their customers can continue gambling and paying rake without an intermediate taking a cut of the proceeds.

So no, GG Poker is not necessarily evil. They are doing what probably many other organizations and companies would do in their shoes – they are trying to maximize their bottom line. And one strategy towards that goal is getting rid of -EV customers. In this case, unfortunately, us.

Does that mean I agree with them? Fuck no. They can fuck themselves as far as I’m concerned. But, I get where they are coming from. As someone who owns a business myself I can’t be hypocritical – we do what we do to make money, and sometimes it’s necessary to prioritize certain customers over others if you want to maximize profitability.

OK…SO WHAT DO WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION?

First, don’t downplay the seriousness of this shit. As Ivan said himself, this is just the beginning. GG Poker is likely to continue pushing changes and policies to further decrease edges in poker, effectively making it harder and harder to make a living playing on the site, until it’s not possible anymore. In fact, he is so confident that this is the future, that during the conversation on the russian forum he states that “the window is closing” and regs should “take as much as possible during this time”:

At the moment, if they do this and make poker not profitable at all in their platform, it’s not a major catastrophe, as there are many other poker operators in the market for us to find profitable games to play. However, they are continuously increasing their market share. If they keep swallowing traffic from smaller operators, we could in fact see a time where the other sites don’t offer enough liquidity for online poker as profession to exist. Also, even if they don’t take the whole market for themselves, they could set a new standard for the industry, and other poker site operators may copy their business model. In both of those scenarios, we are fucked.

So what should we do?

Well, the first move could be to stop playing on the site. Perhaps if most regulars did this, GG would be forced to review their policies and show us some respect. This has happened before, when GG tried to increase rake at 5knl+ games. Regs organized a boycott, and GG ultimately reduced the rake increase (yes, they still increased the rake, just by a lower amount lol). The problem is that organizing a boycott in lower levels is way more difficult due to the large amount of people involved. And also GG might be one of the few options many people have to play online poker. And then, it’s not like they would be unhappy about this. They are trying to get us out. Voluntarily leaving is just what they want from us.

The most important move, in my opinion, was already said by Ivan. We need to make as much money as possible, as soon as possible. I’m not a pessimistic person, and I personally don’t believe in the death of poker, but it just makes sense to accelerate growth and earnings in the unstable ecosystem of poker. We never know what could happen, and there are many variables outside our control that can suddenly reduce our capacity to generate revenue – from sudden arbitrary regulations that impose restrictions to online poker, to greedy sites looking to create a monopoly in the industry – we can’t just sit around waiting to get fucked.

To make as much as money as possible, as soon as possible, there are 3 main things you can do that I strongly recommend:

1. Improve Game selection

2. Take hyper aggressive shots

3. Play more hands vs recs
   

The easiest way to make more money, instantly, without the need to get better, is to play against people who are significantly worse than you. Don’t neglect this if you want to make as much money as possible with poker. You gotta put yourself as often as you possibly can in very profitable situations – and this means finding the best possible sites, games, tables and seats to play in. A lot of regs fall into the trap of thinking they need to play in tough games to improve, but in my opinion that’s not true at all. If you can find a game with a big whale, you can make lots of money and you still have 4 other regs to play against and test your strategies. You can keep competing and trying to outplay the other regs while still having a donator at your table.

The second way to make more money almost instantly is to play a higher stake. Now, of course playing a higher stake requires more bankroll, more risk tolerance and a bit more technical skill. However, most people significantly overestimate how much more technical skill you need to beat the next limit. By game selecting well and taking controlled, hyper aggressive shots, you can significantly increase your earnings by playing a very soft table on a higher stake. Even if you can’t beat the regs, the recreationals at the table will make the game very profitable for you, and you can make a much higher hourly than in your usual limit. Don’t underestimate the power of this combination – if you table select hard and take hyper aggressive shots, I guarantee you can increase your hourly almost instantly.

The third and final is a technical adjustment that I teach to my students at Metagame, and will teach to my students in my upcoming poker courses. Recreational players are the source of the money you make. And yet, I’m 100% sure you don’t play enough hands against them. When was the last time you defended 97o BB vs a BTN 3x from a rec?

Exactly.

Recreational players make so many mistakes postflop that defending a hand as weak as 97o against a BTN 3x is likely to be profitable against them. You should probably also isolate low offsuit Ax combos against their limps, specially if you are IP. And you should 3bet all sorts of suited hands against them, like K8s, way more often than what preflop charts from GTO Wizard tell you to. It’s not rocket science – the worse your opponent, the more hands you can play against them profitably. And the worse they are, the bigger the pot you want to play.

In my course The Lowstakes Blueprint, I teach you game selection protocols that will show you exactly how much money you can make against various types of fish and positions relative to the fish at the table. I also have a complete module on how to exploit recs called “Crushing The Fish”, and that module starts with Max EV preflop ranges you should use to maximize the money you take against these players. I strongly recommend you check it out here.

CONCLUSION

Ivan Bryksin needs some PR training. Fuck GG Poker. Make as much as money as possible, starting now. Don’t fold your BB against SB opens from recs. Check out my course. Keep reading this newsletter.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.
Until then – don’t play the game. Play the Metagame.

Saulo